Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Tropical Trouble A Brewin, Models Show Close Call For East Coast

It looks like we could have Tropical Storm Danny on ours hands before too long as a large area of disturbed weather organizes about 300 miles northeast of Puerto Rico.

I was just looking at some of the medium to long range forecast models and they show the disturbed weather forming into a tropical system then moving on a northwest track toward the outer banks of North Carolina.

However, there are a few other weather players that will impact the eventual track of the system if it does indeed develop.

One influence is the Bermuda High over the Atlantic Ocean...and the other is a cold front that will eventually sweep across the eastern portion of the country.

So the storm could approach the coast and then make a last minute turn out to sea. If this happens it would be sometime between Friday and Sunday.

Now keep in mind this was just one model run with a possible outcome...there could be a completely new picture painted by this time tomorrow.

But I think it is important to at least have an initial heads up, and then monitor the situation with each new report.

If I had to take a guess based off this one model run, I would say the most probably scenario at this time is to approach the outer banks and then begin a north turn about 100 miles off shore...with a pretty quick turn to the north-northeast....almost paralelling the New England coastline about 100 to 200 miles offshore.

It will be a path like Bill, only it may be closer to US soil than Bill's path was this past weekend.

But that is just an initial guess. Stay tuned!


  1. My students are developing weather science fair projects this year and right now we're looking at weather models used for predicting storms. How accurate are the predicting programs for hurricanes and tropical storms? Does anyone know? Thanks.