It was "déjà vu all over again" when the skies opened up over the Texas Hill Country west and northwest of San Antonio this week. Daily rainfall totals from July 14 to July 17 in some locations exceeded 8 to 10 inches per day.
The same area experienced flash flooding last July 4th which resulted in at least 133 deaths. The two situations were similar in some respects, but there were significant differences. In 2025 heavy rainfall (8-10 inches) occurred in a relatively short amount of time (several hours) over a smaller localized area, resulting in extreme runoff and unprecedented rises in river levels, particularly the Gaudalupe River. It rose almost 29 feet in one hour causing massive devastation and loss of life.
The flooding this year occurred over a period of three days of heavy rain, and covered a larger area than in 2025. The long duration of the rain allowed for close monitoring and time to issue warnings and advisories.
The weather pattern that produced the environment favorable for heavy rain was a combination of a large upper level ridge of high pressure combined with low-level flow from the the Gulf into to Texas. The ridge extended north-south on an axis from the Big Bend are of Texas up the spine of the Rockies into Canada. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico produced winds from the Gulf into Texas. The warm moist air was forced upward as it met a weak surface boundary across west-central Texas. Thunderstorm complexes developed along that boundary, tapping the continuous flow of moist air. Thunderstorms developed repeatedly (training) over the same areas. Aloft, the steering currents at 19,000-20,000 feet were only 5 to 10 knots, meaning that thunderstorms would be moving very slowly if at all.
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| Surface weather map July 16, 2026 |
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| 500 millibar map July 16, 2026 showing area of very light winds at around 19,000 feet above central Texas |
On July 14 (rain beginning on July 13) the highest rain totals were west of San Antonio along U.S 90. The heavy rain produced flash flooding, and many water rescues were reported. The highest CoCoRaHS observation was 8.63" at TX-MDN-64 near D'Hanis, TX.
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| CoCoRaHS rainfall reports for July14, 2026 |
The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) precipitation estimate shows a maximum of 12.17" (purple pixel in the white area).
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24-hour radar estimated rainfall 8:00 a.m. July 14, 2026
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| CoCoRaHS observations the morning of July 15, 2026 |
Here is the MRMS 24-hour precipitation on July 15, with a core of 14+ inches of rain located about 12 miles southeast of Kickapoo Cavern State Park.
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| 24-hour radar estimate rainfall 9:00 a.m. July 15, 2026 |
The highest rainfall totals occurred in the 24-hours ending on July 16, with an astounding 18.84 inches of rain at TX-KR-82 near Ingram, TX. A number of CoCoRaHS observers reported more than 10 inches of rain in Kerr County that morning.
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| CoCoRaHS observation the morning of July 16, 2026 |
The MRMS estimate for the morning of July 16 showed two cores of heavy rain, one along U.S. 90 west of San Antonia and the other in Kerr County. The highest estimate the core in Kerr County was just a little over 13.62 inches, substantially less than actual observations from 15-18 inches. That's why actual observations - ground truth - are so critically important.
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| 24-hour MRMS radar estimated rainfall for July 16, 2026 showing core of heavy rain over Kerr County, TX |
When all was said and done, this rain event produced widespread severe flooding, significant property and road damage, and resulted in two fatalities. 72-hour estimated rainfall totals ending at 7:00 a.m. on July 16 over west central Texas revealed a huge area of 8+ inches of rain, with the highest amount estimated to be 27.63 inches in a core along U.S. 90 west of San Antonio.

MRMS estimated rainfall fir the 72-hour period ending 7:00 a.m. July 16, 2026
Rain continued on July 16 and many locations received additional rain, but most amounts were less than an inch. Here are the top ten 96-hour amounts reported by Texas CoCoRaHS observers.
Over this period, there were 71 CoCoRaHS observers in west central Texas that reported 12 or more inches of rain, and 260 that reported 6 inches or more.
The NWS San Antonio office released a map showing the accumulation from Sunday through Thursday. Most of the rain fell July 13 through July 16 (observations July 14-July 17).
Here are the CoCoRaHS observations for that same period.

Total accumulated rainfall July 12-17, 2026
Thanks to all of our observers who reported during the storms. No doubt many were dealing with their own localized impacts from the rain and flooding.








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