Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Bill Leaving Soggy Footprints

Radar image from Houston, TX at 3:21 p.m. CDT June 16.
Tropical Storm Bill came ashore along the Texas Gulf Coast yesterday and since then has made his way well inland.

Although Bill was downgraded to a tropical depression this morning, there were still tropical storm force winds being recorded in Oklahoma this evening. The big impact from Bill is not the winds but the copious amounts of rain he's laying down along his path.

24-hour precipitation ending the morning of June 17, 2015.
Source: NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Rainfall was heaviest yesterday and last night  in Jackson and Wharton Counties between Port O'Connor and Houston, TX.  The CoCoRaHS observer at TX-JK-5 (Ganado 1.5 W) recorded a whopping 11.77 inches of rain for the 24-hour period ending this morning, and a total of 15.06 inches from June 14-17. There were a number of 24-hour amounts in excess of 7.00 inches in this same area. Fortunately there was almost two weeks of dry weather before Bill waded ashore.

24-hour precipitation ending the morning of June 17 in Jackson County, TX

4-day CoCoRaHS precipitation totals for coastal Texas near T.S. Bill landfall as of June 17.

As of noon today T.D. Bill was located north of Dallas and moving NNE. This evening the center of circulation was just south of Ardmore, OK.

Surface map for 7:00 p.m. CDT June 17, 2015

That's another part of the country that really doesn't need any more heavy rain. Expected rainfall in eastern Oklahoma is from 3 to 7 inches, with locally higher amounts. By Thursday and Friday the moisture associated with Bill will be moving into Missouri and the mid-Mississippi Valley, with three to four inches of rain expected there. This will be on top of already soggy ground resulting from the showers and thunderstorms associated with the frontal boundary that has been oscillating north and south this week in a very moist air mass.

There is some good news in all of this. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to drop some healthy amounts of rain from Indiana east through Ohio, Kentucky and through the mid-Atlantic coast. This area has been rather dry the past six weeks, with precipitation from 75 percent to less than 50 percent of normal.
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for the period from 6:00 p.m. CDT June 17 to 6:00 p.m. CDT June 20, 2015

It appears that rain gauges throughout the central and eastern U.S., including the Upper Great Lakes and the Northeast, will be getting a good workout in the next three to seven days.

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for the period from 6:00 p.m. CDT June 17 to 6:00 p.m. CDT June 24, 2015

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