Monday, September 8, 2008

What Are Your Cold Season Predictions?

Good morning from a chilly Denver -- it is hovering just about 40 degrees.

There was even a few reports of snowflakes in the southern burbs this morning.

So what are your predictions for the upcoming fall and winter season? I saw one report not too long ago that the Farmers Almanac, which claims an 80-85% forecasting success rate, saying that all but the extreme west and southeast coasts are in for a cold season.

The almanac predicts above-normal snowfall for the Great Lakes and Midwest, especially during January and February, and above-normal precipitation for the Southwest in December and for the Southeast in January and February.

The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions should be unusually wet or snowy in February according to the almanac.

The Climate Prediction Center is showing warmer than normal temperatures as we head into the fall season.

So what are your thoughts? Are you seeing any natural signs of a hard winter where you live?

(i.e. the animals are storing up earlier than normal)

I know as a kid in Arkansas, I was always told that thick foliage in the warm season was a sign that a long, cold winter lie ahead.

I don't know that there is any truth to that but that is what some believe.

I heard a reference the other day comparing this year's hurricane season to that of 1995.

So I looked up the winter of 1995-1996 and found this article.

If indeed there is a comparison between the two hurricane seasons, will there be one between the winters too?

According to this one example, then maybe the Farmers Almanac will be right?!?

Of course the bottom line is all we can do is wait and see -- but I do think it is fun to not only look at climatology (past weather) but also any signs our environment might be showing us, if any at all.


  1. So, even trained meteorologists give some credibility to the Farmers Almanac eh?


  2. Here in Mid-Missouri, there are big, thick, black wooly worms. Lots of folks think that means a hard winter ahead. We had almost 30" at this station last year, so it would be something to beat that!

  3. I suppose a common question is, so, how many Traces of rain = an inch of rain?
    Concerning hurricane Ike, Are our hurricane hunter planes allowed by Cuba, to over fly their country?

  4. I will not predict what this coming Winter may have in store for me. However, I do hope it's as exciting as last Winter was. A blogger buddy, Nathan, and I have put "Winter Season" data into a formula we concocted to derive the duration of said season. So far, it has worked to our liking. Feel free to take a look at the charts/data. (OSNW3: blog/graphs || Nathan: blog)