Tropical trouble for the Gulf?

The GFS forecast model continues to try and develop a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico later this weekend.   It then moves the storm northeast across Florida .... from north of Tampa, crossing Jacksonville ... and then up the east coast.

We'll see what, if anything, comes of all this. Stay tuned!

Hope for some Texas rain?

Ok .... this is just too exciting ... so I have to share.  The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a very broad area of interest in the western Carribbean/southern Gulf today ... right now it only has a 10 percent chance of development.

BUT ... look at what the GFS model tries to do starting sometime late Sunday through next Wednesday.

Will this become a tropical system? Who knows. But what it does for me ... is it gives hope that Texas may finally see some type of change in the weather pattern to break this aweful hot and dry streak.

Let's keep our fingers crossed and wait to see what Mother Nature has in store!

Also ... you can see Tropical Storm Katia (likely to be Hurricane Katia by next week) moving into the picture on the right side of each slide.

Tropical Storm Katia

Tropical Storm Katia is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane over the next few days ... the system is in the open waters of the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Most of the hurricane forecast models keep this storm out to sea, making an eventual turn to the north, possibly threatening Bermuda.

But as you can imagine, hurricane weary residents on the east coast will be keeping an anxious eye on this storm over the next several days.

The all clear cannot be sounded until the storm makes the turn and forecasters are confident that it will stay out to sea.

Potentially historic Irene approaching US coast

This is going to be quite a weekend in terms of making potential weather history.

If Hurricane Irene takes the path that some models suggest, there will be widespread death and destruction from the coast of North Carolina to inland sections of New England.

Very heavy rain, widespread flooding, and impacts from high winds can be expected.

If you live along the I-95 corridor from eastern North Carolina to Maine ... I would urge you to pay extra close attention to the situation.

The hurricane impacts in North Carolina will likely rival those of Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) ... and in New England ... we are talking conditions as bad, if not worse, than Gloria (1985) and Bob (1991).

Some say this could rival the great hurricane of 1935 that hit New England.

Mean Irene slowly moving toward US

The first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season is slowing pushing northwest ... with an eventual turn to the north and then northeast.

It still looks like the storm is going to graze the eastern seaboard of the United States.

It seems like Irene kind of got lost in today's news coverage after the two big quakes. (one in Colorado and one in Virginia)

Right now, the danger zone is the Bahamas ... where Irene is expected to intensify into a Category 3 or larger hurricane.

Irene upgraded to hurricane

Tropical Storm Irene gained hurricane status overnight ... and is currently battering the island of Puerto Rico.

Haiti and the Dominican Republic are next ... then all eyes turn to the US.

Yesterday I posted three scenarios for a track.  It looks like the first scenario is going to be the closest to reality at this point ... with Irene going along the eastern side of Florida.

Now ... does the storm make a direct hit on the Sunshine State?  Some models show this is possible somewhere between Fort Lauderdale and Jacksonville.   Other data shows a close graze ... with landfall in either Georgia or South Carolina.

It's time to really start watching this one closely if you live in the southeast or have travel plans there over the next few days.

Irene setting her eyes on Florida, 3 landfall scenarios

Residents across the state of Florida need to really start paying attention to the latest information concerning Tropical Storm Irene.

Here are a few scenarios for a potential landfall... and remember ... all images in this post can be clicked on so you can see them in a larger view.

SCENARIO # 1

• The storm taking the eastern side of the "cone of uncertainty" - meaning it would literally parallel the entire east coast of the state - from Miami/South Beach to Jacksonville. This could potentially keep the storm over open waters ... and allow it to really strengthen right off shore

SCENARIO # 2

• It makes a direct hit into the southern tip of the state - which would put Miami in the front, right quadrant of the storm ... and taking the brunt. The storm could experience rapid growth in the warm waters of the Florida Straights

SCENARIO # 3

• The storm could continue on a more northwest course into the Gulf of Mexico ... before making a northern turn and paralelling the west coast ... eventually going into the panhandle ... or making a slight bend back northeast and making a landfall on the west coast of the peninsula .. somewhere in the vicinity of Tampa

Of course ... ANYTHING is possible .... but it really doesn't look like upper level winds will allow this storm to head so far northwest that it puts places like Louisiana and Mississippi in danger.  In fact ... only one model has that as a possible idea.   Below is the latest "spaghetti plot" ... which shows all the possible storm tracks. As you can see ... Florida really appears to be ground zero. 

But a slight shift in any of the other weather variables that are influencing this storm could change the entire outcome.  That is why it is so important to stay tuned for frequent weather updates ... not from me, but from  your local media ... especially if you live in Florida.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
Here is the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center. Notice the "cone of uncertainty" ... or the area where the eventual path could lie. (that is the area in the white bubble ... with hashed lines)

GFS MODEL FORECAST
Here are 12 hour forecast storm positions from the GFS model. The first picture is 6am Thursday. Then each picture after that is 12 hours into the future .. taking us up til 6am Sunday morning.

6 am Thursday - emerging off the north coast of Cuba

6 pm Thursday

6 am Friday

6 pm Friday

6 am Saturday

6 pm Saturday

6 am Sunday

POTENTIAL STRENGTH

Always a tough call ... but to be honest ... most indicatons are this storm will reach hurricane strength.

The waters around Florida are extremely warm ... bath-like temperatures!  History has shown us that hurricanes can explode in intensity within a VERY short period of time as they near land.  I think Hurricane Andrew in the early 1990s is a great example of that.

My best advice if you live in Florida ... don't focus on the potential strength.

Focus on the fact a storm is coming your way with a pretty darn good chance of making landfall and an impact on your area ... and that you have about 4 days to prepare and make your plans.

Tropical Storm Irene forms, has eyes on Florida

As anticpated, Tropical Strom Irene has formed ... moving slowly to the west-northwest. There is some good news and bad news with this storm.

There are a lot of land masses between it and Florida, which will interfere with the strength. (Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba)

BUT ... there waters down there around Florida are very warm and other environmental factors are right to support storm growth.

Some models have this things getting quite strong ... while in the Florida Straights. (between Cuba and south Florida)

It isn't moving very fast ... so there is time to watch this and see what it will do and where it will go. 

I don't believe in over-reacting, but I also believe this is your window to start thinking about what you might do in the event it does strengthen and move your way. (speaking to residents of Florida)

You can click on the picture below to make it bigger.  This is the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropics heating up for next week?

Well ... the answer is YES ... and honestly ... we expect that this time of year.  The hurricane season peaks from late August into early September.

Forecasters have their eyes on the area in red on the map below ... it could likely become an organized and named system sometime this weekend. It would be named Irene if and when this happens.

The GFS long-range model shows the storm developing and moving up the east coast of Florida ... right into the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.

THIS IS JUST ONE MODEL ... so I wouldn't panic ... but if you live in these areas, OR may be traveling there next week ... you DEFINITELY need to start paying close attention to the latest tropical update.

You can click the maps below for a closer look.

Take a look at the next two images ...they are called Spaghetti Plots ... since all the different model outputs look like strings of spaghetti. Look at them ... they mostly all target south and eastern Florida ... then up into the bend of Georgia and Soth Carolina.

Great AMS Blog Post

Here is a great post on the American Meteorological Society's blog about this summer's heat.

Click here to read!

Heat bubble slowly shifting southwest

Ah ... my friends in Arkansas are loving this ... the intense heat is slowly migrating back toward the desert southwest ... thanks the high pressure breaking down and moving southwestward.

Heat wave breaking down

This is a GOOD LOOKING map!

Although there are still some very hot temps out there ... and plenty of heat advisories ... this map looks quiet compared to recent weeks.

Texas, portions of Oklahoma and Arkansas ... you still have a few more hot days ahead I am afraid ...

Tropical Storm Emily dies

Tropical Storm Emily has lost her punch ... near the island of Hispanola.

But the storm will still be dangerous to places like Haiti ... where some places could see more than a foot of rain ... especially in the mountainous terrain of the island.

This will cause deadly flash floods and mudslides.

Impressive heat wave

Check out these mid-afternoon readings across the southern plains states ... I really don't ever recall seeing this widespread of heat in my lifetime. 

Many of these cities are going on 30 or more days of this.

All I can say is thankfully this is more of a desert (dry) airmass .... with dewpoints only in the 50s at most locations ... so there really is little to no heat index for these areas.

Once you get over to around Little Rock ... then it becomes oppressive.  Currently 105 with a 74 dewpoint ... making a heat index of 118!

So want to cool off? How about Mt. Washington, NH .... currently 46 degrees with wind and fog!

Oklahoma sets new hailstone record

...NEW RECORD HAILSTONE FOR OKLAHOMA...




THE STATE CLIMATE EXTREMES COMMITTEE...MADE UP OF REPRESENTATIVES

FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE OKLAHOMA CLIMATOLOGICAL

SURVEY...HAS DETERMINED THAT A HAILSTONE THAT FELL NEAR GOTEBO

OKLAHOMA ON MAY 23 2011 IS THE NEW STATE RECORD LARGEST HAILSTONE

FOR THE STATE OF OKLAHOMA.



THE SIX INCH DIAMETER STONE WAS RETRIEVED AND DOCUMENTED BY A HAIL

RESEARCH TEAM OBSERVING STORMS IN THE AREA. INVESTIGATION BY NWS AND

OCS DETERMINED THAT THE GOTEBO HAILSTONE WAS THE LARGEST DOCUMENTED

HAILSTONE.

Amazing heat records set for July

Check this out ... the public information statement from OKC.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

500 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011



...JULY 2011 WAS THE HOTTEST SINGLE MONTH SINCE RECORDS BEGAN AT

BOTH OKLAHOMA CITY AND WICHITA FALLS...



AFTER A RECORD BREAKING JUNE...JULY WAS ANOTHER MONTH OF

UNPRECEDENTED HEAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MANY RECORDS WERE

TIED OR BROKEN AT WILL ROGERS WORLD AIRPORT IN OKLAHOMA CITY

OKLAHOMA AND SHEPPARD AIR FORCE BASE IN WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. THE

HIGHEST DAILY TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH WAS 111 DEGREES...RECORDED

AT WICHITA FALLS ON THE 9TH. OKLAHOMA CITY REACHED 110 DEGREES THAT

SAME DAY. MOST IMPRESSIVELY...BASED ON THE AVERAGE MONTHLY

TEMPERATURE...BOTH LOCATIONS CLAIMED NEW RECORDS FOR THEIR WARMEST

JULY AND WARMEST SINGLE CALENDAR MONTH SINCE RECORDS BEGAN.



PERIOD OF RECORD

----------------

TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION RECORDS AT OKLAHOMA CITY BEGAN IN 1890.

TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT WICHITA FALLS BEGAN IN 1923.

PRECIPITATION RECORDS AT WICHITA FALLS EXIST...WITH SOME GAPS...BACK

TO 1897. CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION RECORDS BEGAN AT WICHITA FALLS IN

1924.





INDIVIDUAL RECORDS & NOTABLE STREAKS

------------------------------------

BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION RECORDS THAT

WERE TIED AND BROKEN DURING JULY 2011...AT BOTH OKLAHOMA CITY AND

WICHITA FALLS.



OKLAHOMA CITY...

----------------

WARMEST AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE ON RECORD...NOW 89.2 DEGREES.

PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 88.7 DEGREES IN AUGUST 1936.



WARMEST JULY ON RECORD. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 88.3 DEGREES IN 1934 AND

1980.



RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SET ON THE 7TH...9TH...AND

27TH...AND TIED ON THE 10TH.



THE 110-DEGREE READING MEASURED ON JULY 9TH OF 2011 TIED AS THE

WARMEST JULY TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AND TIED AS THE THIRD WARMEST

TEMPERATURE RECORDED DURING ANY MONTH.



DAILY RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BROKEN ON THE

7TH...8TH...10TH...AND 27TH...AND TIED ON THE 16TH.



MEASURABLE RAIN WAS RECORDED ON ONLY TWO DAYS...BUT THE 2.91 INCHES

OF RAIN THAT FELL ON JULY 12TH SHATTERED THE PREVIOUS RECORD

RAINFALL FOR THAT DATE...WHICH HAD BEEN 1.80 INCHES IN 1926.



13-DAY STREAK OF MAXIMUM DAILY TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 DEGREES

OBSERVED FROM JUNE 29 TO JULY 11.



AS OF JULY 31ST...THE TEMPERATURE HAD REACHED 100 DEGREES ON 38 DAYS

DURING 2011. THE RECORD FOR A YEAR IS 50 DAYS IN 1980. THE CURRENT

TOTAL OF 38 DAYS IN 2011...IS 9 DAYS AHEAD OF THE 1980 PACE AS OF

JULY 31ST.



WICHITA FALLS...

----------------

WARMEST AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE ON RECORD...AND WARMEST JULY ON

RECORD...NOW 92.9 DEGREES. BOTH RECORDS WERE PREVIOUSLY 91.9 DEGREES

IN JULY 1980.



WARMEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD...NOW 88 DEGREES ON JULY

26...2011. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 87 DEGREES ON AUGUST 16...1952.



DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SET ON THE 9TH...AND TIED ON

THE 8TH AND 26TH.



THE 111-DEGREE READING MEASURED ON JULY 9TH TIED WITH FOUR OTHER

DATES AS THE 5TH WARMEST JULY TEMPERATURE ON RECORD...AND AS THE

17TH WARMEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED DURING ANY MONTH.



DAILY RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BROKEN ON THE

10TH...13TH...14TH...23RD...26TH AND 27TH...AND TIED ON THE 24TH.



ONLY A TRACE OF RAIN FELL...WHICH TIED AS THE 2ND DRIEST JULY ON

RECORD. JULY OF 2003 SAW ZERO PRECIPITATION AND NO TRACE AMOUNTS.



THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 100 DEGREES ON ALL 31 DAYS DURING JULY 2011.

A STREAK OF 40 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH 100 DEGREE READINGS BEGAN ON

JUNE 22...2011...AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO AUGUST. THE LONGEST

SUCH STREAK ON RECORD AT WICHITA FALLS IS 42 DAYS IN 1980. THE

CURRENT STREAK MUST LAST ONLY TO AUGUST 3RD TO BREAK THE RECORD.



A STREAK OF DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BEGAN ON JUNE

15...2011. TRACE AMOUNTS FELL ON 5 DAYS. THE STREAK WITHOUT

MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAD REACHED 47 DAYS AS OF JULY 31ST. IF

THIS STREAK CONTINUES THROUGH AUGUST 8TH...IT WILL TIE WITH TWO

OTHER PERIODS AS THE 9TH LONGEST STREAKS WITHOUT MEASURABLE

PRECIPITATION. THE LONGEST STREAK WAS 75 DAYS FROM DECEMBER

19...1913 TO MARCH 3...1914.