Wow there has been so much in the news about wild weather this past few weeks.
I am now writing a section on the national edition of the Examiner.com so if you haven't checked it out - please do!
Today, I posted three new articles - two about the South Dakota hailstone and one about a tornado west of Phoenix.
CLICK HERE to visit my column!
CoCoRaHS
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Killer Tornado Hits N.E. Montana
An unusually large and powerful tornado touched down in extreme northeast Montana on Monday, just south of the Canadian border - killing 2 and seriously injuring 1.
Tornadoes are not all that uncommon across eastern Montana during the summer thunderstorm season - but what is uncommon - is to get a large and deadly twister.
Usually they are just small, rope-like tornadoes that are short-lived and fairly harmless.
Click here to read some stats about killer tornadoes in Montana.
Tornadoes are not all that uncommon across eastern Montana during the summer thunderstorm season - but what is uncommon - is to get a large and deadly twister.
Usually they are just small, rope-like tornadoes that are short-lived and fairly harmless.
Click here to read some stats about killer tornadoes in Montana.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Dog Days of Summer
The latest 8-14 day forecast from the Climate Prediction Center calls for more heat in the eastern 2/3 of the nation.
Below normal temps are expected along the immediate Pacific Coast.
Below normal temps are expected along the immediate Pacific Coast.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Hotter Than A Firecracker
It's hot across much of the nation today - with heat advisories covering most of the middle states.
That is not so much due to the actual temperatures, but the humidity.
Highs across much of the heartland will climb into the 90s, but will feel like the 100-110° range once you factor in the humidity.
Severe storms are expected across Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon. There is actually a pretty good threat for tornadoes.
A few isolated severe storms may fire over the Front Range of Colorado, along the Interstate 25 corridor from Colorado Springs to Dener and Fort Collins.
And the winner for heat is Phoenix and Las Vegas where afternoon temperatures are climbing above 110° and overnight lows are barely dropping below 90°!!!
That is not so much due to the actual temperatures, but the humidity.
Highs across much of the heartland will climb into the 90s, but will feel like the 100-110° range once you factor in the humidity.
Severe storms are expected across Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon. There is actually a pretty good threat for tornadoes.
A few isolated severe storms may fire over the Front Range of Colorado, along the Interstate 25 corridor from Colorado Springs to Dener and Fort Collins.
And the winner for heat is Phoenix and Las Vegas where afternoon temperatures are climbing above 110° and overnight lows are barely dropping below 90°!!!
Friday, July 9, 2010
Southern Flooding; 2 States, 2 Causes
Thursday brought life threatening floods to both Texas and Oklahoma - but for different reasons.
The flooding in extreme south Texas along the Rio Grande River was due to the landfall of Tropical Depression #2. The area was still getting over the impacts from Hurricane Alex when this new system moved through.
The Rio Grande River at Laredo went from 3 feet deep to over 40 feet deep!
In Oklahoma, a stalled out front was causing widespread heavy rain. In and around the Oklahoma City area, widespread floods were reported. At least one death was reported.
The flooding in extreme south Texas along the Rio Grande River was due to the landfall of Tropical Depression #2. The area was still getting over the impacts from Hurricane Alex when this new system moved through.
The Rio Grande River at Laredo went from 3 feet deep to over 40 feet deep!
In Oklahoma, a stalled out front was causing widespread heavy rain. In and around the Oklahoma City area, widespread floods were reported. At least one death was reported.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Tropical Pipeline Into Southern Plains
A tropical wave moving through the western Gulf of Mexico is pointed at the Texas coastline like a firehose.
The moisture is reaching all the way up into Oklahoma and Kansas.
Numerous flash flood watches and warnings are in effect for the potential to receive several inches of rain.
Meanwhile, it continues to boil in the east. Highs are near or in excess of 100 degrees from North Carolina to New York.
It is cool in the Rockies with clouds and 60s around the Denver area.
The moisture is reaching all the way up into Oklahoma and Kansas.
Numerous flash flood watches and warnings are in effect for the potential to receive several inches of rain.
Meanwhile, it continues to boil in the east. Highs are near or in excess of 100 degrees from North Carolina to New York.
It is cool in the Rockies with clouds and 60s around the Denver area.
Friday, July 2, 2010
Study Shows Aircraft Cause Precipitation, Hole-Punch Clouds
As turboprop and jet aircraft climb or descend under certain
atmospheric conditions, they can inadvertently seed mid-level clouds and
cause narrow bands of snow or rain to develop and fall to the ground,
new research finds. Through this seeding process, they leave behind
odd-shaped holes or channels in the clouds, which have long fascinated
the public.
The key ingredient for developing these holes in the clouds: water
droplets at subfreezing temperatures, below about 5 degrees Fahrenheit
(-15 degrees Celsius). As air is cooled behind aircraft propellers or
over jet wings, the water droplets freeze and drop toward Earth.
“Any time aircraft fly through these specific conditions, they are
altering the clouds in a way that can result in enhanced precipitation
nearby,” says Andrew Heymsfield, a scientist with the National Center
for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and lead author of a new study into the
phenomenon. “Just by flying an airplane through these clouds, you could
produce as much precipitation as with seeding materials along the same
path in the cloud.”
Precipitation from planes may be particularly common in regions such as
the Pacific Northwest and western Europe because of the frequent
occurrence of cloud layers with supercooled droplets, Heymsfield says.
The study, which addresses longstanding questions about unusual cloud
formations known as hole-punch and canal clouds, is being published this
month in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. It was
funded by the National Science Foundation, NCAR’s sponsor. In addition
to NCAR, the research team included scientists from Colorado State
University and the University of Wyoming, as well as a retired cloud
physicist.
-----Punching holes in clouds-----
Across the world, sightings of blue-sky holes piercing a cloud layer
have triggered bemusement and speculation. A front-page feature on
Yahoo! carried the headline “A Halo over Moscow” after photos emerged of
just such a hole in October 2009.
As far back as the 1940s, scientists have wondered about the causes of
these clouds with gaps seemingly made by a giant hole punch. Researchers
have proposed a number of possible aviation-related causes, from
acoustic shock waves produced by jets, to local warming of the air along
a jet’s path, to the formation of ice along jet contrails. Indeed, the
earliest observations implicated jet aircraft, but not propeller
aircraft, as producing the holes.
Researchers in the 1980s observed that propeller aircraft could
transform supercooled droplets into ice crystals, and experiments were
launched in the 1990s to characterize the phenomenon.
But scientists had not previously observed snow as it fell to the ground
as a result of aircraft until Heymsfield and his colleagues happened to
fly through some falling snow west of Denver International Airport with
an array of instruments. While the research team did not notice anything
unusual at the time of their 2007 flight, a subsequent review of data
from a ground-based radar in the area revealed an unusual echo,
indicating that the band of precipitation had evolved quickly and was
unusually shaped.
“It became apparent that the echo had evolved in a unique way, but I had
no satisfactory explanation,” says Patrick Kennedy, a Colorado State
University radar engineer who spotted the unusual readings and helped
write the study.
-----Piecing together clues-----
Heymsfield and Kennedy went back through data from their aircraft’s
forward- and downward-viewing camera. They noticed a hole in an
otherwise-solid deck of altocumulus clouds in the forward imagery, as
well as a burst of snow that extended to the ground.
Since the hole was oriented in the same direction as the standard flight
tracks of commercial aircraft in the region, Heymsfield surmised that a
plane flying through the cloud might have somehow caused ice particles
to form and “snow out” along its path, leaving a canal-shaped hole-punch
cloud behind.
A subsequent review of flight track records from the Federal Aviation
Administration revealed that turboprop planes operated by two airlines
flew close to the hole-punch location, following a standard flight path
that produced the subsequent band of snow. Snow crystals began falling
about five minutes after the second aircraft flew through the cloud. The
snowfall, in a band about 20 miles long and 2.5 miles wide, continued
for about 45 minutes, resulting in about two inches of snow on the ground.
The researchers also examined data from onboard spectrometers that
profiled the snowflakes within the band of snow beneath the hole punch.
These plate-shaped crystals showed evidence of riming (accumulation of
liquid water), whereas ice particles elsewhere in the cloud showed
little or no riming.
“This tells us that the aircraft literally ‘seeded’ the cloud just by
flying through it,” Heymsfield says.
The cloud layers outside Denver contained supercooled droplet--particles
of water that remain liquid even at temperatures as low as -35 degrees
Fahrenheit (about -34 degrees C). When a turboprop plane flies through
such a cloud layer, the tips of its propellers can cause the air to
rapidly expand. As the air expands, it cools and causes the supercooled
droplets to freeze into ice particles and fall out of the clouds as snow
or rain.
The research team conducted additional studies into the cooling over the
wings of jet aircraft, thereby accounting for earlier observations of
the impact of jets. Jet aircraft need colder temperatures (below about
-4 to -13 degrees F, or -20 to -25 degrees C) to generate the seeding
effect. Air forced to expand over the wings as the aircraft moves
forward cools and freezes the cloud droplets.
“This apparently happens frequently, embedded in the cloud layers,”
Heymsfield says. “You wouldn’t necessarily see it from satellite or from
the ground. I had no idea this was happening. I was sitting in back of
the plane. And then this data set just fell in our laps. It was a lucky
break.”
The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research manages the National
Center for Atmospheric Research under sponsorship by the National
Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings and conclusions, or
recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s)
and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science
Foundation or the Department of Energy.
atmospheric conditions, they can inadvertently seed mid-level clouds and
cause narrow bands of snow or rain to develop and fall to the ground,
new research finds. Through this seeding process, they leave behind
odd-shaped holes or channels in the clouds, which have long fascinated
the public.
The key ingredient for developing these holes in the clouds: water
droplets at subfreezing temperatures, below about 5 degrees Fahrenheit
(-15 degrees Celsius). As air is cooled behind aircraft propellers or
over jet wings, the water droplets freeze and drop toward Earth.
“Any time aircraft fly through these specific conditions, they are
altering the clouds in a way that can result in enhanced precipitation
nearby,” says Andrew Heymsfield, a scientist with the National Center
for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and lead author of a new study into the
phenomenon. “Just by flying an airplane through these clouds, you could
produce as much precipitation as with seeding materials along the same
path in the cloud.”
Precipitation from planes may be particularly common in regions such as
the Pacific Northwest and western Europe because of the frequent
occurrence of cloud layers with supercooled droplets, Heymsfield says.
The study, which addresses longstanding questions about unusual cloud
formations known as hole-punch and canal clouds, is being published this
month in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. It was
funded by the National Science Foundation, NCAR’s sponsor. In addition
to NCAR, the research team included scientists from Colorado State
University and the University of Wyoming, as well as a retired cloud
physicist.
-----Punching holes in clouds-----
Across the world, sightings of blue-sky holes piercing a cloud layer
have triggered bemusement and speculation. A front-page feature on
Yahoo! carried the headline “A Halo over Moscow” after photos emerged of
just such a hole in October 2009.
As far back as the 1940s, scientists have wondered about the causes of
these clouds with gaps seemingly made by a giant hole punch. Researchers
have proposed a number of possible aviation-related causes, from
acoustic shock waves produced by jets, to local warming of the air along
a jet’s path, to the formation of ice along jet contrails. Indeed, the
earliest observations implicated jet aircraft, but not propeller
aircraft, as producing the holes.
Researchers in the 1980s observed that propeller aircraft could
transform supercooled droplets into ice crystals, and experiments were
launched in the 1990s to characterize the phenomenon.
But scientists had not previously observed snow as it fell to the ground
as a result of aircraft until Heymsfield and his colleagues happened to
fly through some falling snow west of Denver International Airport with
an array of instruments. While the research team did not notice anything
unusual at the time of their 2007 flight, a subsequent review of data
from a ground-based radar in the area revealed an unusual echo,
indicating that the band of precipitation had evolved quickly and was
unusually shaped.
“It became apparent that the echo had evolved in a unique way, but I had
no satisfactory explanation,” says Patrick Kennedy, a Colorado State
University radar engineer who spotted the unusual readings and helped
write the study.
-----Piecing together clues-----
Heymsfield and Kennedy went back through data from their aircraft’s
forward- and downward-viewing camera. They noticed a hole in an
otherwise-solid deck of altocumulus clouds in the forward imagery, as
well as a burst of snow that extended to the ground.
Since the hole was oriented in the same direction as the standard flight
tracks of commercial aircraft in the region, Heymsfield surmised that a
plane flying through the cloud might have somehow caused ice particles
to form and “snow out” along its path, leaving a canal-shaped hole-punch
cloud behind.
A subsequent review of flight track records from the Federal Aviation
Administration revealed that turboprop planes operated by two airlines
flew close to the hole-punch location, following a standard flight path
that produced the subsequent band of snow. Snow crystals began falling
about five minutes after the second aircraft flew through the cloud. The
snowfall, in a band about 20 miles long and 2.5 miles wide, continued
for about 45 minutes, resulting in about two inches of snow on the ground.
The researchers also examined data from onboard spectrometers that
profiled the snowflakes within the band of snow beneath the hole punch.
These plate-shaped crystals showed evidence of riming (accumulation of
liquid water), whereas ice particles elsewhere in the cloud showed
little or no riming.
“This tells us that the aircraft literally ‘seeded’ the cloud just by
flying through it,” Heymsfield says.
The cloud layers outside Denver contained supercooled droplet--particles
of water that remain liquid even at temperatures as low as -35 degrees
Fahrenheit (about -34 degrees C). When a turboprop plane flies through
such a cloud layer, the tips of its propellers can cause the air to
rapidly expand. As the air expands, it cools and causes the supercooled
droplets to freeze into ice particles and fall out of the clouds as snow
or rain.
The research team conducted additional studies into the cooling over the
wings of jet aircraft, thereby accounting for earlier observations of
the impact of jets. Jet aircraft need colder temperatures (below about
-4 to -13 degrees F, or -20 to -25 degrees C) to generate the seeding
effect. Air forced to expand over the wings as the aircraft moves
forward cools and freezes the cloud droplets.
“This apparently happens frequently, embedded in the cloud layers,”
Heymsfield says. “You wouldn’t necessarily see it from satellite or from
the ground. I had no idea this was happening. I was sitting in back of
the plane. And then this data set just fell in our laps. It was a lucky
break.”
The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research manages the National
Center for Atmospheric Research under sponsorship by the National
Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings and conclusions, or
recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s)
and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science
Foundation or the Department of Energy.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Hurricane Alex Captures News Headlines
It's the first Atlantic hurricane of the season and it will make landfall over the next 36 hours somewhere between northeast Mexico and southeast Texas.
Despite where it goes - the effects will be widespread as a lot of wind and rain pound the region.
It was just a few years ago when the same area took a beating from Hurricane Dolly.
Click here for a look back at Dolly and how it compares to Alex.
Despite where it goes - the effects will be widespread as a lot of wind and rain pound the region.
It was just a few years ago when the same area took a beating from Hurricane Dolly.
Click here for a look back at Dolly and how it compares to Alex.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Where Will Alex Hit?
The model runs are taking Tropical Storm Alex (eventually Hurricane Alex) further and further north it seems with each run.
Yesterday it was making landfall well into Mexico, at least a few hundred miles south of Brownsville.
Now the official forecast has it coming in about 75 miles south of Brownsville, Texas.
Yesterday it was making landfall well into Mexico, at least a few hundred miles south of Brownsville.
Now the official forecast has it coming in about 75 miles south of Brownsville, Texas.
If you look at this snapshot from the NAM Model, looking about 84 hours into the future, it has the storm hitting Brownsville head-on.
And if you look at the GFS forecast model looking out about 108 hours, it has the storm almost moving parallel to the Texas coast and making landall in the Houston vicinity.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
All Eyes On Gulf of Mexico & Tropical Storm Alex
Well what many have feared could happen is in the making - a tropical storm or hurricane moving into the region being impacted by the oil spill.
Tropical Storm Alex formed overnight and will have impacts today and tomorrow along the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Forecast models show the storm slowly moving across the western portion of the Gulf of Mexico early next week and possibly growing to near hurricane strength by July 1.
Even if the storm does not move near the oil spill, the impacts may still be felt by increased wave action and flow of the current as a result of the winds at the surface.
I am by no means sounding the panic button in this blog but it will be a touchy situation that bares close following over the coming week.
Tropical Storm Alex formed overnight and will have impacts today and tomorrow along the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Forecast models show the storm slowly moving across the western portion of the Gulf of Mexico early next week and possibly growing to near hurricane strength by July 1.
Even if the storm does not move near the oil spill, the impacts may still be felt by increased wave action and flow of the current as a result of the winds at the surface.
I am by no means sounding the panic button in this blog but it will be a touchy situation that bares close following over the coming week.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Lightning Safety Week
When the thunder roars - go indoors!
We're wrapping up National Lightning Safety Week in the United States. The National Weather service has been busy putting together a lot of resources for you to use so you are better educated on what to do to protect your life and property.
Click here to see safety tips, watch videos, find community resources and more!
We're wrapping up National Lightning Safety Week in the United States. The National Weather service has been busy putting together a lot of resources for you to use so you are better educated on what to do to protect your life and property.
Click here to see safety tips, watch videos, find community resources and more!
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Moderate Risk Area Targets Midwest Once Again
More severe weather is in the forecast today.
The Storms Prediction Center has outlined an area with a moderate risk for severe storms that produce tornadoes and large hail.
The region with the highest probability is outlined in the picture with 10%, and includes southwest Minnesota, southeast South Dakota, extreme northeast Nebraska and much of northwest Iowa.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Tornado Hits Billings, MT
Sunday afternoon turned stormy for many as severe thunderstorms developed along the leeside of the Rockies and across the central and northern high plains states.
There were numerous reports of large hail and heavy rain from the storms, and even a few tornadoes.
One tornado touched down on the northeast side of Billings, Mont. around 4:45 pm Sunday.
The twister did a considerable amount of damage to area businesses and homes, including a McDonalds and an arena.
Click here to see an update from KTVQ - you have to scroll down and look at the videos - especially the second one. Wow - an up close and personal shot of the twister and it's powerful circulation of wind.
The National Weather Service office in Billings will have to conduct a damage survey today - but preliminary reports say this is the strongest tornado to hit Billings since July of 1958.
Tornadoes are not rare in eastern Montana - but tornadoes of this strength over populated areas are not common.
Here is a link to a table of all Montana tornadoes since 1950.
The last time I could find that a tornado struck in the immediate Billing vicinity was on July 4, 1998 - a small EF0.
There were numerous reports of large hail and heavy rain from the storms, and even a few tornadoes.
One tornado touched down on the northeast side of Billings, Mont. around 4:45 pm Sunday.
The twister did a considerable amount of damage to area businesses and homes, including a McDonalds and an arena.
Click here to see an update from KTVQ - you have to scroll down and look at the videos - especially the second one. Wow - an up close and personal shot of the twister and it's powerful circulation of wind.
I was online yesterday watching all the storms and found this picture on KULR's web site - it shows the wall cloud hanging over the city as the twister tore through.
The National Weather Service office in Billings will have to conduct a damage survey today - but preliminary reports say this is the strongest tornado to hit Billings since July of 1958.
Tornadoes are not rare in eastern Montana - but tornadoes of this strength over populated areas are not common.
Here is a link to a table of all Montana tornadoes since 1950.
The last time I could find that a tornado struck in the immediate Billing vicinity was on July 4, 1998 - a small EF0.
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