CoCoRaHS On Facebook

If you are a member of Facebook, please join the CoCoRaHS group page. We have nearly 400 members.

On the page you can chat, start or respond to weather discussions, and even post your weather pictures!

It is also a chance for you to make new friends who just happen to also be fellow weather geeks like myself!

The snow storm in the Front Range of Colorado was a no go as the upper level, cut-off low pressure drifted off course.

It went just a little bit too far east and switched our winds to a northwesternly direction.

That is a downslope wind for most of Colorado's Front Range and thus dries out the atmosphere.

Oh well -- that is just how it goes sometime. Plenty of more opportunities for snow here.

Welcome To Fall; Kudos To Georgia Observers

Fall is here, and for a large chunck of real estate, we fell it.

Such as here in Denver where temps tumbled below 50 degrees along the Front Range of Colorado Sunday night have will stay there much of the week.

The higher elevation of southern metro Denver, including my house, are under a winter storm watch for 6-12 inches of snow possibly falling overnight tonight! Absolutely amazing!

Meanwhile out west, it is a different story with high fire danger and plenty of heat stretching from Seattle all the way to Los Angeles.

Heavy rain fell from Missouri to Texas on Monday along with some hail and high wind reports thanks to a squall line of severe thunderstorms.

Much needed rain is falling across central Texas today.

The flooding continues across 17 counties of Georgia. I saw an interview with the Georgia State Climatologist on television yesterday and he highlighted only CoCoRaHS precipitation reports during his interview.

One was in Douglas County -- checking in with over 11 inches of rain at the time, and the other was on the opposite side of metro Atlanta with 9.60 inches of rain.

That is excellent publicity and validation for what we do -- so congratulations to the Georgia observers who have been able to help document the footprint of this historic weather event.

I am sure it will be studies in great detail over the days and week to come.

On this date in 1989, Hurricane Hugo was over the Carolinas and losing strength. Meanwhile, strong northwesterly winds ushered unseasonably cold air into the north central U.S., just in time for the official start of autumn. Squalls produced light snow in northern Wisconsin. Winds in Wisconsin gusted to 52 mph at Rhinelander.

In 1988 in this date, an early morning thunderstorm produced baseball size hail at Plainview, in Hale County TX. Late in the evening more thunderstorms in the Southern High Plains Region produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Plainview TX and Crosby TX.

And in 1983, forty-one cities reported record cold temperatures during the morning. Houston, TX, hit 50 degrees, and Williston ND plunged to 19 degrees.

Fall Arrives Tomorrow, Wet & Cold For Some

Happy Monday!

Wow what a busy weather map today...you can clearly see signs of the pending fall arrival this week by looking at the western US. A slew of frost, freeze and even a few winter weather advisories color the map.



As I type, it is 44 degrees in Denver with a chilly rain falling. Drive up the road less than 100 miles and it gets even colder with 37 degrees and light rain in Cheyenne, Wyoming!

I absolutely love this time of the year. And am going to patiently sit by the window tonight to see if a flake or two of snow tries to mix in with the rain as we see our first overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s since last spring in the Mile High City.

Elsewhere...you might be thinking of building a boat if you live in the southeast, especially across the northern half of Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama.

Click here to read a summary out of the Atlanta area, where over 4 inches of rain has been recorded in just 2 days.

Click here to read flash flooding reports out of central Alabama.

These weren't the only states that saw a lot of rain, with the rain gauges across Oconee County, South Carolina also getting a workout. One CoCoRaHS observer there checked in with 8.92 inches of rain. Absolutely amazing!

This is that same area of disturbed weather that dropped so much rain over Texas, Arkansas and vicinity last week.

Rainfrog left a comment of the blog last week wondering about the shift in seasons we are seeing and how it relates to the normal. I know we've talked in recent blogs about early signs of the seasonal change in both animal behavior (esp. bears) and vegetation.

That is such a broad question and could be looked at from so many different angles I don't really know where to start looking in terms of data.

I think it really might be more of a question that is relative to local area -- and could be answered quickly by going to the climate data month-to-date on your local National Weather Service office's web site.

Now once the season change is complete, it will be easier to crunch data and compare the time period to past years for the entire nation.

It has been a while since we talked severe weather, but there is a chance for strong to severe storms today across eastern and central Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri and western Arkansas.

Taking a look at the extended forecast through the rest of September, the jet stream is expected to stay over southern Canada during much of the period, which will keep the weather in the lower 48 fairly seasonal and quiet -- quiet meaning no huge, or major organized storm system. That doesn't mean total sunshine and tranquil weather however.

There will still be a few pockets of disturbed weather, such as the current scenario over the central Rockies and across the southeast states.

Toward the last few days of the month it looks like the jet stream will start to dip south, and could spawn some active weather as we head into October, especially across the Great Lakes and northeast states. That is a long way out and may completely change between now and then, however.

The tropics remain quiet, and our very blessed quiet season continues. We are just about past the peak of activity, historically speaking, so keep your fingers crossed for a continued quiet season.

Here is a little weather history for September 21.

A great hurricane smashed into Long Island and bisected New England causing a massive forest blowdown and widespread flooding. Click here to read more.

On this date in 1989, Hurricane Hugo made landfall along the South Carolina coast. Can you believe my mom let me stay home from school to watch the wall to wall television coverage? It was so amazing to me. Click here to read more.

I'm Still Here, Checking In

Hey blog readers!! I am so sorry it's been quiet of late. I am just so overwhelmed with my jobs and in currently in Baltimore, MD for a conference.

Things will get better for me as we head into October, but I will try and get back to more frequent entries.

So what is up with the water across Texas and now Arkansas -- eventually spreading into the Tennessee River Valley and Mid-Atlantic?

It is a large cut-off low pressure. So what is that? It is simply an area of low-pressure in the atmosphere that is "cut-off" from the jet stream flow aloft.

Right now the jet stream is across southern Canada and so the low pressure responsible for all the rain in the mid-south is just slowly spinning along, and will continue to do so until the weather pattern changes. (meaning the jet stream moves south and pushes the low pressure along, or some other weather feature comes along and moves it out, like a front)

We are expecting that rain here in the Baltimore area starting Wednesday and lasting off and on into the weekend.

Along with the large area of clouds and rain comes cool temps. Oddly enough, it was hotter in the Dakotas today than many southern cities.

There is also an area of "cut-off" low pressure over the central Rockies. It has been bringing unsettled weather to much of Utah and western Colorado.

Real quick before I close, I just saw a weather story about the cool and wet summer much of the nation has just experienced and how it has impacted pumpkins.

Apparently the national pumpkin crop needs hot weather to flourish and since the year has been so cool and wet, we may have to pay more this year for pumpkins to decorate our yards!

Fall-Like Weekend For Many

Cool weather can be found in several places this weekend, including here in the Rockies.

Denver's high is only forecast at 60 degrees today with showers. It will snow tonight above the timberline in the high country.

An area of low pressure aloft is parked over central Texas and it will bring cool weather and rain to the southern plains today. Several flash flood watches are in effect from central Texas to central Kansas.

There is a large area of disturbed weather over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Currently it is not expected to become tropical. But, it will have an influence on the weather along the coast over the next few days. Keep abreast of your local forecast for more info.

More Signs Of Autumn, El Nino Chit Chat

Well I hope you all had a relaxing Labor Day holiday weekend. I planted some new ornamental grasses and a pine tree in my yard -- and went to the Colorado State Fair.

Overall I didn't do enough work inside the house, but that is ok...I relaxed and had fun.

I noticed some frost and freeze advisories in central Oregon today, and recently we had a few in the Great Lakes region.

The days are growing shorter and it will not be long before we see more and more of these issued around the USA.

As we head into the first full week of September, the active weather headlines include Tropical Storm Fred -- which will not even come close to posing a threat to the US coast. The storm will move north in the far eastern Atlantic.


There is an area of disturbed weather off the outerbanks of North Carolina and the National Hurricane Center is watching it for signs of tropical development.

At this time, anticipate unsettled weather along the coasts of North and South Carolina over the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere things are fairly quiet around the lower 48 states with the exception of a cold front sweeping across the northern plains. This weather feature will keep unsettled skies in the forecast from the central Rockies to the Dakotas.

Some lingering monsoonal moisture will keep a chance of showers in the forecast for portions of Arizona and New Mexico -- but given how disappointing this monsoonal season has been, I wouldn't get too excited.

However, some nice rains did fall Monday night across west-central New Mexico with slow moving thunderstorms.

It has been a fairly dry monsoon this season, which began July 1 and ends September 30. The National Weather Service office in Flagstaff wrote a nice report on just how dry it has been across their forecast area. Click here to read.

And recently the topic of El Nino came up on the blog -- and like myself, I am sure you are wondering what the current outlook for the winter season looks like?

Well El Nino is currently in progress, but is weak -- some might call us in a neutral phase right now, meaning neither El Nino or La Nina.

Looking ahead, it really isn't clear if El Nino will crank up again or if we will stay in a neutral phase.

So it is hard to say what the future holds.

If we enter a definite "neutral" phase, I think you can expect a winter that will keep us on our toes. Equal chances for anything is what we can except.

Perhaps a little exciting weather for everyone? That would be fun.

Labor Day Weather

All in all the upcoming holiday weekend looks really nice for much of the lower 48 states.

In past years we've dealt with everything from record heat and severe storms to hurricanes over Labor Day.

This year it looks pretty quiet with the exception of unsettled weather in the Pacific Northwest as a large area of low pressure spins off the coast.

Some monsoonal moisture will spark afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the southern and central Rockies.

A few storms are also possible with daytime heating in the southeast and across the southern plains.

I hope you all get a chance to get out and enjoy the "unofficial end" to summer! The technical end of summer is still a few weeks away.

I will leave you with some really great pictures of hail fog courtesy of Storm Chaser Tony Laubach. Click here to read his blog and see some neat shots.

Fire Weather Meteorologists

I ran across an article today that I thought you might find interesting about meteorologists who focus on fire weather.

Click here to read more.

All eyes are on Tropial Storm Erika as it moves west-northwest. Interests in the Bahamas and the southeast US should keep an eye on this system.

Hurricane Jimena is losing some strength but the damage has been done in some communities of the Baja of California. Huge surf, high wind and heavy rains have toppled trees and powerlines.

The storm will further weaken and significantly slow down, lingering well into the weekend over the desert southwest and northern Mexico as a remnant area of low pressure.

The climate prediction center is predicting the chance for heavy rain over Arizona and New Mexico this Labor Day weekend -- so for all our desert observers -- have your gauge ready to go!

And if you will be out of town, make sure it is empty before you leave and then be ready to report a multi-day accumulation when you return!

Autumn Signs Are Here

Over the weekend I had some friends from Arizona in town and took them on a mountain venture.

About 35 miles west of Denver is the highest paved auto road in North America, the road to Mount Evans.

On the way up we saw several patches of fall color, which is a few weeks too early.

We also stopped at the visitors center at the base of Mount Evans and they told us a bear tried breaking into the store the night before.

At the top of the mountain we were in several snow squalls, which isn't too unusual for August at 14.260 feet....nonetheless....it is just a sign of things to come.

Hurricane Jimena is a monster and will do a lot of serious damage to the Baja California over the next 24 hours.

Some of that moisture will travel into the southern US and maybe as far north as Colorado.

It is hazy here in Colorado today due to the huge fires in southern California.

And we may have the next tropical system on our hands in the Atlantic basin before too long as disturbed weather continues to organize near the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean.

Danny's A Dud

Well this is good news...Danny is no longer a tropical storm. It's converted over to being extra-tropical, or essentially a large area of low pressure.

It will still skirt up the coastline of the eastern US with wind, rain and higher than normal surf. And even though it has lost tropical characteristics, that doesn't mean we can't see a little bit of minor damage in the way of flooding or powerlines down.

There is an area of disturbed weather east of the islands in the Carribean but right now it isn't looking too healthy.

And the quiet hurricane season continues...I know that is a big sigh of relief for the coastal residents.

Although at this point, we need a tropical system to make landfall in Texas and bring a lot of rain. Much of the state is in a pretty bad drought.

There is still time for that...September is when we see the peak of tropical activity.

And actually, I just checked the Climate Prediction Center's website and they are showing a forecast for drought conditions to improve across Texas.

So perhaps they are counting on a tropical system or two?

Tropical Storm Danny Hangs On

Well that little Danny just won't give up -- it is a very disorganized tropical system but nonetheless is maintaining enough storm characteristics to stay on the maps.

That also means it will remain a threat to most of the US eastern seaboard this weekend, from North Carolina to Maine.

Rain and wind will be the main impacts from the storm, along with pounding surf.

Elsewhere around the country, it is feeling downright fall-like, such as here in Colorado.

We already seem to be in the dry stretch of weather typically experienced by mid-September.

The leaves on my aspen trees are already getting a hint of yellow on them and so is my grass.

It seems like things are about 3 weeks too early. Personally, I still think this is going to be an interesting fall season.

I have posted a new poll on the blog. Based off the last poll, well over half of those who participated own a NOAA Weather Radio.

Danny Update, Wind Tower Story, And Viewer Feedback

Let's start with the breaking weather news...Danny! It looks like those along the east coast need to keep an eye to the sky over the next few days, especially from the Outer Banks to Cape Cod.

Danny is forecasted to become either a strong tropical storm, or a weak hurricane over the next 2 days.

The storm will brush by the Outer Banks of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic, then make a close sweep past Long Island and Cape Cod this coming weekend. A landfall is even possible somewhere in New England during the day on Saturday.

The good news is Danny will be a storm on the move and won't linger. The bad news is the weather will be stormy Thursday through early Sunday along the east coast.

Stay tuned to your local media for the latest if you live in the areas mentioned above.

Have you ever seen a large wind farm? Did you know they can fool the weatherman? Click here to read more.

And someone left a comment on the blog asking how accurate weather models are for predicting hurricanes/tropical storms?

There are several different forecast models out there, and the output can vary due to a couple of reasons.

1. Models are just complex mathematical equations basically, and each model is written with a different set of start parameters -- so the outcomes will vary. Some may focus on track, some may focus on strength.

2. Models are only as good as the data that feeds it.

Because there are so many different models with different outputs, forecasters often use an ensembal -- which shows all the possible outputs from all the chosen models on one display.

If 10 out of 12 models agree, that is likely going to be the consensus used at the time -- but things change -- so that is why many models run more than once a day. Some run every 6 hours, some can even run every hour as new data feeds into it.

Click here to learn more about tropical cyclone prediction models.

So I guess the answer is they are pretty darn accurate, but things can change from run to run depending on the amount of data and the quality of the data feeding the model.

There aren't many, if any, land-based methods to collect data in the oceans. There are some floating bouys but mostly within a few hundred miles of the coast. In some cases there are islands with weather equipment.

But for the most part, data collected in the open ocean is mostly all from satellites or passing ships.

So the quality and quantity can vary from hour to hour depending on a number of variables.

This is why it is important to stay tuned for each update to see if there are any significant changes or developments with the forecast.

Maybe Sometime Today

The area of unsettled weather north of Puerto Rico is still looking like it will organize into something.

The hurricane hunters are checking it out this morning.

And forecast models still point to unsettled weather in the Carolinas this weekend as it moves northwest toward the coastline.

Stay tuned!

Tropical Trouble A Brewin, Models Show Close Call For East Coast

It looks like we could have Tropical Storm Danny on ours hands before too long as a large area of disturbed weather organizes about 300 miles northeast of Puerto Rico.

I was just looking at some of the medium to long range forecast models and they show the disturbed weather forming into a tropical system then moving on a northwest track toward the outer banks of North Carolina.

However, there are a few other weather players that will impact the eventual track of the system if it does indeed develop.

One influence is the Bermuda High over the Atlantic Ocean...and the other is a cold front that will eventually sweep across the eastern portion of the country.

So the storm could approach the coast and then make a last minute turn out to sea. If this happens it would be sometime between Friday and Sunday.

Now keep in mind this was just one model run with a possible outcome...there could be a completely new picture painted by this time tomorrow.

But I think it is important to at least have an initial heads up, and then monitor the situation with each new report.

If I had to take a guess based off this one model run, I would say the most probably scenario at this time is to approach the outer banks and then begin a north turn about 100 miles off shore...with a pretty quick turn to the north-northeast....almost paralelling the New England coastline about 100 to 200 miles offshore.

It will be a path like Bill, only it may be closer to US soil than Bill's path was this past weekend.

But that is just an initial guess. Stay tuned!

Rounding Out August

Well Denver had the two warmest days of the year over the weekend with 96 on Saturday and 98 on Sunday. The 98 degrees was a new record.

You know what was so funny is it really didn't feel that hot outside. I actually was shocked when I watched the news and saw it was a record high.

Monsoonal moisture has invaded the state today along with a cold front moving down from Wyoming.

It is very cloudy this morning, much more humid and cooler.

Hurricane Bill, now a tropical storm, is racing off across the North Atlantic today. It will become extra-tropical and bring windy, wet weather to northern Europe over the next few days.

A new area of disturbed weather is drifting west toward the islands of the Carribbean, but at this point, forecasters are only giving it about a 30% chance of forming into something.

The slow moving cold front has finally pushed off the east coast of the US after bringing a very unsettled weekend. Some really soaking rains were recorded by CoCoRaHS observers from North Carolina to Maine.

Most of the action this week will be in the middle of the nation as a series of cold fronts move across the Rockies.